Angelique Kerber vs Elise Mertens Wimbledon odds, selection, preview (July 1)

Kerber vs Mertens Odds

Kerber odds -300
Merten’s odds +240
over under 20.5
time | how to watch 10 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
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What would have been a celebratory duel between Angelique Kerber and Elise Mertens at Wimbledon a year or two ago has turned into what bookmakers believe is one-sided.

Is this assessment correct? If so, does the current figure go far enough?

Let’s analyze the matchup and see where the betting advantage lies.

Kerber back home on the lawn

There is arguably no player who enjoys the short grass season as much as Kerber every year.

The 2018 All England Club champion ranks at the top of the Tour for both overall wins and win rate among all women and it’s easy to see why.

With some of the flattest groundstrokes on tour, as well as one of the strongest lower bodies to get deep on the ball, catch it early and fire it into open space, Kerber’s game was made for the greens.

The fact that she can create incredible angles on neutral rallies and has a left serve that she can spot with precision only adds to an incredibly strong fundamental foundation.

The form is there too, last year 11-2 on the pitch, winning in Bad Homburg and only losing to champion Ashleigh Barty at the All England Club.

This season she is 4-1 and has advanced to the third round, losing 11 games in four sets.

Mertens in consistently poor form

Before we dive into the Belgian’s struggles, let’s first acknowledge something positive. Wimbledon marks the 18th in a row Slam that Mertens has reached at least the third round.

Now for the not so positive.

The 2022 campaign was a test of resolve for many players. Garbine Muguruza has collapsed because of her game on the pitch, Elina Svitolina announced a break before announcing she and Gael Monfils would have a child, but nobody has had flaws on the pitches as big as Mertens this year.

Her best win since mid-February came when she was knocked out by Petra Kvitova. The only quarter-final she has reached since St. Petersburg was in Strasbourg the week before Roland Garros in the middle of a weak field.

Even their wins in the first two rounds were uninspiring. Camila Osorio is not a lawn player and only injury stopped her as she led by a set and a break before retiring in the third. Mertens was also behind Panna Udvardy, who has played five games in total on the surface.

She needed a tie break in the second and a third set over 12 games to get through that.

betting value

With the stylistic and formal boundaries firmly in Kerber’s corner, statistical analysis between these two doesn’t help the Belgian’s case much either.

Kerber dominated Mertens when it comes to career hold plus break percentage – not too surprising considering she’s one of the best of her generation on the surface. This benefit becomes more apparent when you consider only the most recent results. the lawn season 2021 and 2022).

With a Elo With a rating advantage on grass of almost 200 points, Kerber has proven that she hasn’t just amassed those impressive stats against mediocre and weaker competitors. Even when the quality of the competition is factored in, Kerber seems – at this point – to be a huge favorite to win this.

For me, crossing the four-game mark on the span is a huge respect for the German star, but it doesn’t go far enough for me. This should be a flat rate of five games and slightly more expensive than +100. 4.5 games at Plus Money is something I’d definitely like to attack.

Tips: Kerber -4.5 games (+104 over PointsBet)

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