Pablo Carreno Busta in action ahead of the ATP Bastad Open.

ATP Bastad Day 1 predictions including Carreno Busta vs Wawrinka

As the dust settles over Novak Djokovic’s Wimbledon triumph, attention now turns to the regular ATP Tour, including the ATP Bastad Open. There are a number of fascinating matches scheduled for Day 1 in Sweden and as always we offer our predictions here at LWOT. But who secures his place in the second round?

ATP Basstad day 1 predictions

Fabio Fognini versus Marc-Andrea Husler

Head to head: Husler 1-0 Fognini

Fabio Fognini in the qualifying rounds of an ATP event? It’s been a minute… In fact, it hasn’t happened in 14 years. The Italian’s longevity is not often praised, but he has long been a deserved pillar of the top-50. Suddenly he has trouble even qualifying for these events. It’s not a coincidence. Fognini’s peaks become fewer and fewer between its valleys.

He looks visibly slower than he used to be, so it’s difficult to predict how he’ll progress from game to game. This second clash with Marc-Andrea Hüsler will not be like their first one-sided affair as Fognini came back from injury. Fortunately, this duel is quite friendly – Fognini can recover from the fact that Huesler often suffers from the same dips and limits as him. If he can play anything close to average, he should be able to survive a close match.

Prognosis: Fognini in 3rd place
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Elias Ymer versus Daniel Altmaier

Head to head: first date

Formally, Elias Ymer and Daniel Altmaier are in similar positions. Both are beginning to consolidate their positions within the top-100, and both have had a decent run at Challenger levels recently, but have also suffered small losses in the last month or so. At the same time, neither player is particularly suited to grass – they’ve generally excelled against lower-ranked players on clay lately.

So what’s the match-up like? Altmaier’s one-handed backhand isn’t just for show – it holds up pretty well on a clay court and gives it an extra level of firepower that Ymer doesn’t necessarily have. These conditions are tough, however, and being solid when they come makes a big difference. Ymer is as athletic as they come and will come out on top in this department. That should be more important in what is likely to be a tight game.

Prediction: Ymer in 3
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Lorenzo Musetti versus Laslo Djere

Head to head: Djere 4-1 Musetti

In one of the more bizarre stats of the ATP Tour, Lorenzo Musetti has lost four times in five encounters with Laslo Djere. Four times out of five. It’s always been pretty close in general, but for two players roughly the same ranked, this is a pretty one-sided head-to-head race.

Djere is probably as underrated as it is fair to say, a top 70 mainstay who has excelled at being incredibly difficult to beat on a clay court. However, form is a fine thing, especially for a momentum player like Musetti. A recent Challenger title at Forli where he put in a set everyone Match can give a player an air of invincibility on their favorite surface. Djere might be hard to beat but if Musetti can survive like in Forli he should claw the win.

Prediction: Musetti in 3′
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Stan Wawrinka vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Head to head: Wawrinka 3-0 Carreno Busta

This isn’t the best match-up for Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard isn’t the best at dealing with players with overwhelming power – instead he tends to shine against players with similar playing styles like Daniil Medvedev, Novak Djokovic and Roberto Bautista Agut from all over the world. Big hitters can beat him fairly easily – his final with Carlos Alcaraz in Barcelona was good proof of that.

Stan Wawrinka also doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he used to, and he certainly doesn’t move as explosively as he did in his glory days. So it remains tight but Wawrinka still has a lot of power and the matchup is good for the Swiss even if Carreno Busta is in the top 20 in the world. Expect Wawrinka to put together another of his most recent epics.

Prognosis: Wawrinka in the 3

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