Tuesday ATP Montreal Betting Odds, Analysis & Betting: Trust The Consistency Of Evans

It’s a big five week stretch on the tennis calendar as we have Masters events in Montreal and Cincinnati followed by US Open qualifiers and the final Grand Slam event of the year in New York.

This week the ATP Tour is taking place in the province of La Belle in Quebec and we have a couple of games to take away from Tuesday’s action. Given the rain that disrupted Monday’s game, it should be a full order of play (it’s worth noting that it’s likely to rain again on Tuesday).

Game times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching tennis matches.


Dan Evans (-155) vs. Filip Krajinovic (+128)

12:20 p.m. ET

The first match that fascinates me is between Dan Evans and Filip Krajinovic. Evans, who is only -155 in this matchup, seems to have fallen out to me. I have the Brit as a bigger favorite in this one for a number of reasons.

First, with the muggy conditions we’re seeing in both Montreal and Toronto (where the women’s tournament is held), Evans’ advantage in the fitness department should be a key factor.

His dragging style from the baseline, ability to extend rallies, and incredibly effective backhand slice that’s difficult to attack should also help in this regard.

As far as stylistic matchup goes, while Krajinovic has the stronger weapons, Evans is far more consistent. Despite not serving as much, Evans has still managed to win an impressive 75% of first serve points on hard courts this season.

He also won more than half of his points behind the second serve to boot.

Even where Krajinovic may have an advantage in the power department, Evans has proven adept at finding ways to consistently pick up points in his service games.

Finally, while everyone has been training and practicing on site (or on hard courts in general), I don’t think Krajinovic has played a professional match on hard courts since Indian Wells – while Evans has played in comparable conditions and on comparable courts just last week in Washington – is something that should affect the handicap for this match.

I’ll be supporting the British to get this done and I think that number should be closer to the -180 probability.

Choose: Evans ML (-155 over PointsBet)

Maxime Cressy (-215) vs Aslan Karatsev (+158)

11 a.m. ET

Oh Aslan, what an incredibly strange few weeks it has been.

The Russian has shown flashes of really strong play in one set, only to lose the ability to play rallies longer than three or four balls without committing a fault in the next set.

While this can make it incredibly frustrating (not to mention difficult) to get in the way of teams in your games, it often helps when trying to bet the total.

While books continue to look to serve points won or percentages to form their lines, a qualitative advantage can be found in understanding that while these two men have strong serves and big groundstrokes, the inconsistencies of both (in different respects) are shared can be a recipe for success in finding backup.

With Karatsev’s ability to correct and dictate play from the baseline, it’s certainly possible to see him having a path to victory (or at least winning a set).

As for the tall American, his serve-and-volley style can earn him free points quickly, and his aggressive chip-and-charge return style has actually made him a better returner than most players his size. However, his double fault tendency allows players to find chances in his service games.

Considering both men have the ability to be consistent and each has enough weaknesses for the other to exploit, this one has every chance of topping three sets or two sets.

Choose: Over 23.5 games in total (+100 via PointsBet)

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