The 2022 US Open begins on Monday and there is a lot of excitement surrounding this year’s event.
Serena Williams has suggested she will retire after the tournament. Meanwhile on the men’s side Rafael Nadal will try to tie Williams’ Grand Slam record (23). Daniel Medvedev and Emma Raducanu will both try to defend their 2021 titles.
The current odds are as follows:
Who are our betting experts the smartest to bet on? Read on to see what André Snellings and Brad Gilbert have to say.
Which men’s matchup offers the best bet value in the first round?
Snellings: The best betting matchup in the first round is Dominik Thiem +290 vs. Pablo Carreno Busta. Thiem has been struggling with serious injuries since winning the 2020 US Open and is not quite back from his last comeback attempt. Even so, he’s still in danger of winning a game or two at the only major he’s ever won. He is also 7-0 in his career against number 12 Carreno Busta. Carreno Busta is playing at a higher level but Thiem’s advantage gives him more than a 1 in 3 chance to win this match.
Gilbert: With Novak Djokovic out, Daniel Medvedev is the favorite and #1 seed. He hasn’t played as well as he has in recent summers and this is the first time he has entered a Major as a defending champion. Rafael Nadal coming off an injury so there will be more opportunities for people like Carlo Alcaraz. There’s a bit of uncertainty as to who’s going to win this tournament and that always offers great options to bet on the guys with higher odds.
Which favorite (men or women) has the best chance of winning the US Open?
Snellings: Medvedev, the men’s favorite, has the best chance of winning the US Open. Medvedev has already proven that he can win in Flushing. He’s also advanced to at least the semifinals in each of the last three events. Add to that the fact that he’s made it to the finals at the last two Australian Opens – the other hard-court event. Also with Novak Djokovic Outside of the draw, only a limited number of players are available who have the skills to defeat Medvedev on hard courts. Sure, Swiatek was the top player on the women’s tour this year, but she doesn’t have nearly the same track record in New York.
Gilbert: Iga Swiatek played incredible tennis during the French Open. While I like her as a favorite this year, I’d suggest playing the field or hitting three or four long shots. While there is a lot of uncertainty in the men’s tournament, there is even more in the women’s tournament. This could be a great opportunity for Coco Gauff or Simona Halep. Halep has a great draw in the first round and a good opportunity to play the second seed.
How do you think Serena Williams will fare in what may be her last US Open tournament before retiring? Is it worth betting on them?
Snellings: Serena (+5000) is a big wildcard as she has had almost no success in singles since returning from injury at Wimbledon. Despite this, she still has the raw ability to win this event. Every result, from a first-round loss to a championship, is legitimately in play. I haven’t seen enough of her to bet on her winning here – but I’m not going to bet directly against her either.
Gilbert: As I said before, expect the unexpected this year. If there is a long odds prop bet, understand that they are long odds for a reason. Taking someone like Serena Williams to the round of 16 or quarterfinals might be a better bet than taking them straight to victory. I would look at the field outside the top 15 and the unseeded players to reach the semifinals.