Jabeur’s incredible season continues (September 6)

Jabeur vs Tomljanovic Odds

Jabeur odds -220
Tomljanovic Odds +180
over under 21.5
time | how to watch 2 p.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
odds over PointsBet. Click for tips on watching tennis matches here.

It’s only a matter of days before we crown the champions at the US Open with a handful of games remaining on the women’s side. And on Tuesday there will be a matchup between Ons Jabeur and Ajla Tomljanovic in the quarterfinals.

Let’s look at where the value lies in this matchup!

Jabeur wants to continue the Grand Slam success

It’s been an incredible season for the 28-year-old from Tunisia, who has amassed a remarkable 42-13 record up to this point in the season. After Jabeur won a few big titles and a few more finals, it was really hard to beat him on the biggest stages.

Aside from a shocking first-round loss at the French Open, it took a really strong opponent or a physical problem to stop the world No. 5. After battling by a set for the title at the All England Club, Jabeur is looking to take a step further to win in New York City.

She has the game to do just that. With a strong first serve as well as powerful groundstrokes and excellent tennis IQ and variety, it’s no surprise that she has found incredible success on all surfaces.

After losing just a single set this week (one that saw her commit over 20 unforced errors against Shelby Rogers), her form has been strong.

While Tomljanovic can hit the ball well and has a decent serve, it’s not overwhelming power and it should be a tall order to smash through Jabeur.

Tomljanovic continues strong summer push in Queens

Speaking of in-form players, it’s impossible to talk about the summer hard-court swing (or the US Open Series) without mentioning the Australian’s success.

Tomljanovic, who will likely be cast as “the woman who ended Serena Williams’ career” from now on, has really proven herself over the past two months. The 29-year-old, who is 13-3 (including qualifiers) since Washington, has been a tough nut to crack on hard courts. It took Iga Swiatek to get the job done in Toronto, eventual champion Liudmilla Samsonova in Washington, and fast field specialist and eventual finalist Petra Kvitova in Cincinnati.

Unfortunately, in this case, she meets a player of this top class in Jabeur.

Equipped with a decent serve and a well-rounded game from the baseline, with an impeccable ability to hit her points, Tomljanovic is one of those players who is finally starting to beat players she should, and on a more consistent basis. The problem is that Jabeur is not one of those players.

betting value

Considering Tomljanovic’s jump in talent here and Jabeur’s form, it’s hard for me to face the Tunisian at this point.

With the Aussie showing off her impressive defense and ability to deflect shots into open space, Jabeur’s well-known tendency to mix in dropshots will be extremely useful in turning Tomljanovic away from her strong baseline in tennis.

With her ability to land some incredibly accurate shots, there’s also a risk that she’ll be a bit off on the day and can’t find ways to gain points.

I will help Jabeur get through this one and reach another semi-final in a major tournament.

Tip: Jabeur -3.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)

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