Pegula tests Swiatek’s rally tolerance (September 7th)

The quarterfinals continue at the US Open on Wednesday with two more exciting women’s matches.

I found bet value on both games to take advantage of, including the intriguing duel between world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and American Jessica Pegula.

Read on for my best bets and previews.

Note: Game times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching US Open games.

Iga Swiatek (-225) vs. Jessica Pegula (+170)

7 p.m. ET

Swiatek survived a test against Jule Niemeier, beating the Germans 2-6, 6-4, 6-0. Swiatek won 54% of her return points and broke serve seven times.

However, the Pole won just 52% of her first serves and hit just 19 winners against 31 unforced errors.

Swiatek calmed down after her 37 game Winning streak earlier this season as she won 2-2 in her US Open warm-up events on hard. So far in New York she has had a negative ratio of winners to unforced errors in every match.

As their 34-5 hard court record shows this season, Swiatek is still a major threat on the surface. She has a heavy, well-placed forehand and her backhand has become more stable in 2022. Swiatek has just lost some of the precision and consistency she had earlier this year.

Jessica Pegula defeated Petra Kvitova 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 16. Pegula made 75% of her first serves and won 68% of those points on first serve. Additionally, Pegula excelled on returns, winning 61% of her return points, including 53% on Kvitova’s big first serve.

The American threw up plenty of returns, hitting just 13 unforced errors throughout the game.

Pegula is now 10-3 during the summer hard court swing and 22-11 on hard in 2022. Pegula gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes, having made just 61 unforced errors in New York so far.

Swiatek’s level is falling while Pegula is playing tennis at a high level at the right time. Swiatek will try to dictate with the forehand but that won’t succeed as the American did such a great job of holding the baseline, staying consistent and putting the ball where she wants.

Pegula will get a lot of balls into Swiatek’s weaker backhand and, like against Kvitova, she won’t give away a lot of free points herself. This will see the Pole press and roll over her groundstrokes, as has often been the case since her winning streak.

Choose: Pegula +3.5 games (-110 over PointsBet)

Aryna Sabalenka (-140) vs. Karolina Pliskova (+115)

1 p.m. ET

Aryna Sabalenka came back hit Danielle Collins 3: 6, 6: 3, 6: 2 in the round of 16.

Sabalenka won 51% of her return points and broke six times. However, she will want to improve her own serve as Sabalenka won 60% of her first serves and hit eight double faults.

The Belarusian has been fairly clean from the floor in this tournament, with 121 winners compared to 98 unforced errors. However, she has never won two-thirds of her first serves in any match in New York.

Sabalenka plays high-risk tennis, hitting massive groundstrokes and trying to overpower her opponents. However, she can sometimes struggle with her serve, rallies and variety.

Karolina Pliskova defeated Victoria Azarenka in a tough threesome, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-2. Pliskova won 45% of her return points, including 59% on Azarenka’s second serve, and broke six times.

However, with her usually big serves, the Czech will certainly try to improve on her 58% served points and seven double faults.

Pliskova is now 10-3 during the summer hard court swing and 366-191 as an A professional on hard. She’s known for her big serve, but it was the former US Open finalists Base game that has blossomed lately.

Pliskova has had a positive winner/unforced error ratio in her last three matches and has been particularly good at countering. The depth of the Czech is terrific and she hits winners with precision when an opening presents itself.

Neither player is serving particularly well, so this match will likely come down to the baseline. Sabalenka will try to take the initiative in rallies and try to dictate the game. However, given Pliskova’s good defense, she won’t be able to pierce them in the same way she has met other current opponents.

The Czech has also shown she has the controlled aggression to step forward on the pitch and force Sabalenka to defend. But unlike previous opponents such Kaia Kanepi or Collins, she doesn’t just rely on her offensive skills to succeed.

Choose: Pliskova ML (+115 via BetMGM)

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