Trust the in-form French (6 September)

Garcia vs Gauff Odds

Garcia odds -130
Gauff odds +105
over under 21.5
time | how to watch 7 p.m. ET
odds over BetMGM. Click here for tips on watching the US Open here.

Caroline Garcia has now won 12 games in a row, most recently defeat Alison Riske 6: 4, 6: 1 in the round of 16.

The French crushes her competition, but how will she fare against Coco Gauff with her superb foot speed and counter-attacking skills?

Read on for my analysis below!

Garcia has a habit of winning

Garcia was excellent against Riske in this round of 16. She won 75% of her first serve points, hit eight aces, and was unbroken the entire match. Garcia hit 30 winners compared to 23 unforced errors during the game.

On the return, Garcia won 56% of her return points from the second serve against Riske. This is Garcia’s third straight match to win over 50% of her second serve return points.

Garcia has had a positive winner/unforced error ratio in all four matches she played at this tournament. She also won a total of 77% of her first serve points in the tournament. The Frenchwoman also had just eight break points over the four games and was broken twice.

Garcia, as I mentioned earlier, has won 12 games in a row. She has also won 11 straight sets and gone through five straight games without losing more than six games. Garcia is now 39-15 on the season and 18-9 on hard courts. Overall, the French is 241-197 on hard courts in her career.

Garcia plays with a high level of controlled aggression. She serves big and mainly dictates with her forehand from the baseline. However, it must be noted that Garcia can dominate even with her backhand as her game clicks on all cylinders.

Garcia annihilates every second serve and groundstroke briefly on the court and as we’ve seen Bianca Andreescu In the third round, even excellent defenders can’t tempt Garcia to make unwanted mistakes at this point.

The faster courts at the US Open are also advantageous for Garcia’s game.

Gauff fights hard

Coco Gauff played an excellent match hit Shuai Zhang 7-5, 7-5. Gauff hit 33 winners against 25 unforced errors while reinstating many of Zhang’s big groundstrokes and forcing her to work very hard during her service games. Zhang only gained 54% of her service points and was broken five times.

Gauff’s own serve left a lot to be desired, winning just 62% of her first serves and 48% of her second serves. And it’s true that the American has won under 50% of her second serve points in three straight games.

However, the rest of Gauff’s game is all in sync at the moment. She defends incredibly well, using her foot speed to seek out an exceptional number of groundstrokes from her opponents, but also looks for opportunities to reverse points.

Gauff’s backhand has always been her forte, effectively controlling the baseline from that wing. Gauff’s forehand was a revelation in this tournament, however, as the American was not only solid from that wing but has even dictated play from the baseline without the unforced forehand errors she’s known for.

Given all of this, it’s no surprise Gauff is 19-10 on hard for the Year and 24-16 overall in 2022.

betting value

Garcia is in a zone and playing the best tennis of her career. She serves very well and plays with controlled aggression from both wings.

It’s true that Gauff beat two strong players in her previous two rounds, but Madison key didn’t have the consistency that Garcia brought to the table and Zhang isn’t as mentally strong as the Frenchwoman.

While Gauff’s defensive and counterattacking skills were superb, Garcia hits with such ferocity that it will be very difficult for Gauff to be constantly pushed around the pitch. The match against Andreescu showed how difficult it is for opponents to make even the stacks of unforced errors Garcia gave away earlier this summer (like in Palermo against). Bronzetti).

I’m also worried about Gauff’s second serve, which hasn’t been good in the last couple of games. Given how effectively Garcia has punished weaker second serves, it’s certainly an area of ​​concern for the American.

Choose: Garcia ML (-130)

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