Will Kyrgios continue to thrive? (5th September)

We’ve officially reached the quarterfinals at the US Open.

Two men’s matches will take place on Tuesday, with Matteo Berrettini set to take on Casper Ruud in the day session and the red-hot Nick Kyrgios meeting Karen Khachanov under the lights.

Let’s dive into both games.

Note: Game times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching US Open games.

Casper Ruud (-120) vs. Matteo Berrettini (+100)

12 p.m. ET

Ruud doesn’t get much love from the media – he’s not as flashy as Kyrgios or Carlos Alcaraz – but the Norwegian put on a wonderful performance tennis year.

He reached the semi-finals of Roland Garros, won three ATP titles and has an overall record of 42-15 in 2022.

Above all, the clay court machine feels extremely comfortable on these fast hard courts for the first time in his career.

Ruud managed a tiebreak against Corentin Moutet in his round of 16 matchup, but his overall game was strong, especially at net where he won 33 points from 44.

That form followed a five-set match against Tommy Paul in which Ruud looked unstoppable with his groundstrokes and serve in the fifth set.

Now he faces his toughest test of the tournament as he meets Berrettini in the quarterfinals.

The biggest key to this match will be Ruud’s ability to capture Matteo’s elite serve. Berrettini is fifth overall on the Tour in service rating – including seventh place on hard courts. Meanwhile, Ruud is 15th in the Yield Rating and 9th in Percentage Break Points Converted on the surface.

Berrettini has looked a lot stronger in this tournament than at any point this summer, but there have been signs of concern in each of his last two games.

Against Andy Murray, the Italian could have finished off the Brit in a quick three-set match. However, he faltered mightily in the clutch, converting just 5 break points out of 15 and hitting 51 unforced errors overall.

In his round of 16 match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Berrettini committed almost as many unforced errors as winners, taking five sets and nearly four hours to progress.

Even though Berrettini defeated Ruud in straight sets at the US Open two years ago, I support Ruud at this point. He’s adapted well to the speed of these courts since 2020, and his skill and numbers on the return prove he’ll have chances to break Berrettini’s serve – while holding his own.

Choose: Casper Ruud (-120 about fan duel) | Play to -135

Nick Kyrgios (-600) vs. Karen Khachanov (+425)

8:15 p.m. ET

“I’m really happy to finally be able to show you guys the work and dedication. It took me 27 years.”

That was the quote from Kyrgios after he played what was probably the best game of his career against Daniil Medvedev on Sunday.

His groundstrokes were perfect, his serve boiled – apart from giving Medvedev two breaks in the second set – and most of all his tactics were incredibly smart and surprising.

This last part is why Kyrgios finally took the next step in his career.

He is focused and confident. The escapades and escapes are becoming increasingly rare. Sometimes he takes his anger out on his box, but beyond that, Kyrgios has been gaining ground in the biggest moments this year.

So that brings us to this game against Khachanov.

Khachanov’s Lauf was a little unexpected given his past at the US Open (this will be his first quarterfinal) and his results this summer (he hasn’t won more than one match at hard-court events).

His five-set round of 16 win over Pablo Carreno Busta was a massive confidence boost, but in Round 3 the Russian struggled with Jack Draper’s power before the Brit retired.

He has to face another powerful but much more experienced opponent in Kyrgios.

It doesn’t bode well for him, so I’m taking on that in this one.

Historically, Kyrgios and Khachanov have gone in six tiebreaks eight sentences They have played each other, with both games going the distance.

However, the last time the two met was at the 2020 Aussie Open. In the two years since, Kyrgio’s game and mental approach to tennis have changed drastically.

There are very few players who can beat Kyrgios when he plays like he did in the round of 16. He’s got all the momentum at the moment and I don’t think Khachanov will keep it that close, especially when the crowd is heavily behind the Australian at Arthur Ashe Stadium at night.

Choose: Under 37.5 (-115 over DraftKings) | game to 37

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